Thursday, April 23, 2020

Heaters Pitching Breakdown




The Heaters, an absolutely fascinating team on paper with a lot of extremely promising young talent, but some issues with depth and cap space.

Because this is an expansion team many of the players came from existing franchises. Personally I spent way more time with the team creator than the super mega league so I really don't know who was drafted and who is completely new. Please feel free to fill in for that if you want to write up any historic information on any players.


Rotation

A major strength at the front end, a major weakness at the back end, and not a lot of depth. The rotation alone also represents about 35 million of their 140 million cap, which doesn't sound too wild until you figure out 2 players account for 30 million of that.

Rotation ace Elmo Slayer leads this group. A 24 year old left handed talent, Slayer can do it all with a 5 pitch arsenal, all rated good to great. A true ace on any team, Slayer throws with great velocity, better control, and even better movement. Even if hitters can catch up to his pitches they won't be able to find them.

He's also paid like a true ace at 17.9 million, a number that's only going to increase as he approaches his prime. On the one hand he's going to be around for a long time, on the other so is his contract.

Behind him is Bishop Fuller, rounding out a 1-2 punch of left handed talent with another brilliant 5 pitch arsenal and great measurables in all 3 categories, as well as good plate discipline and contact skill. You won't feel uneasy about leaving him in late in a close game with his ability to work a count and foul off pitches. At 12.1 million his contract is also somewhat more favorable than Slayer's though still a significant investment in a position that measures its impact in innings. In the post season you can bet that investment would be worth every penny though.  

Going forward any GM is going to have a tough choice about who to keep in the top of this rotation.  Both are relatively young arms and likely to get more expensive on a team that already has significant cap problems.  While Elmo Slayer is unquestionably the better pitcher, overall pitch rating between these two is much closer and Fuller might be the best choice going forward for his bat and ability to mix multiple fastballs with his breaking pitches.

3rd Starter: Air Lovestone, a right handed pitcher with 5 options at her disposal, Lovestone would be an intriguing developmental prospect but is nowhere near ready to anchor a rotation like this. Good accuracy but poor velocity and below average break, she has a good pitch selection for creating ground ball contact but is going to be dancing around the strike zone a lot or getting taken deep. She could be ready in two or three seasons but right now she's back of the rotation material at best. She is on the most team friendly contract at 4.3 million.

Boris Biggsworth: Boris has a degree of flexibility in that he can come out of the bullpen or open games for you but in practice he is going to struggle against left handed hitting and with only 3 pitches of fastball, slider, and changeup predictability will be an issue across multiple innings. He throws with average velocity and below average break and control, and at 37 is only going to fade with time. He may be useful coming out of the bullpen in a blowout but is going to need to start at least some games so you aren't forcing Slayer, Fuller, and Lovestone to pitch on 3 days rest.

Unfortunately it will be hard to find an adequate upgrade for Biggworth in free agency as the Heaters have very little cap room to work with due to their huge pitching contracts. Not content to settle in to the Super Mega League, they've decided to go for it all and bring home a title in their inaugural season as an expansion team, spending 40 million dollars on their superstar rotation aces and closer alone. While they have the ability to make some small upgrades they're going to have to weigh a few weaknesses in bullpen, rotation, and lineup, and hope they can grab lightning in a bottle with some of these prospects and veteran players.


Bullpen

Bullpen could be a strength for this team if the starters are able to go deep, but could also be a huge liability if asked to cover more than 2 or 3 innings and will get exposed against a good lineup. The lack of any left handed pitching also hurts them in the matchup game and should be immediately addressed.

Derr Neverwocker is an unbelievable right handed talent. Composed under pressure, 4 pitch selection with outstanding control and absolutely filthy stuff. Fastball that can go over 100 mph on a good day and won't dip below 97 on a bad one, he can overpower or bamboozle you or just make you look silly at the plate. Hand this guy any lead in the 9th and he will save the game with any defense behind him, including the kids in Sandlot or pre-angels Angels in the Outfield. He's also the third of the paid musketeers demanding 13 million a year. Only 27 years old, it's likely you'll have some hard choices to make in a few years about who to keep and who to let walk but Neverwocker is going to be vital to any championship run.

Splash Cashmore is a right handed power arm who makes a solid set up pitcher even with his unfortunate propensity for walks. Rated a C+ overall because of a lack of break, he makes up for it with a mid 90's fastball and above average control, coupled with a tough changeup. Getting up there at 36 but for now he's your best option for getting to Neverwocker.

Huck Enduck is an interesting option to match up against lefty bats with a fastball/slider/curve selection. Below average velocity, break, and control means he isn't going to be a reliable holder in a close game but he isn't an egregious choice either and unfortunately you're going to have to rely on him to get results at some point during a regular season. Also has some pop to his bat so if he gets hold of one it's going to carry.

Simba Delmo rounds out the crew. At 41 years old his skills have badly deteriorated though he can still reach the low 90's with his fastball. A fastball/changeup pitcher, even with his limited control he's probably going to be a better option to battle through a tough inning or two than Enduck. Ultimately Delmo is what Cashmore sees when he looks in one of those funhouse aging mirrors.

Any GM taking on this team is going to have to address the bullpen sooner than later, for retirement if nothing else. To keep your superstar players your bread and butter on this team is going to be identifying and signing talented C and C+ rated players, finding talent while keeping costs down. That means a focus on pitch selection, age, and min/max stats.

That lack of a left handed arm is also dangerous given that this team is coming out the gate in win now mode.  Enduck comes across as a good candidate for a quick sign and release because his contract is slightly more expensive than Delmo and his pitches are lower rated, but it's going to be hard to find a quality left handed arm for 2.1 million.

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